TTC – What Are the Chances? Probability Made Clear – $199.95

图书介绍

The world of fluctuating probabilities, under continual adjustment as new evidence comes to light, captures the way the world works in realms like medicine, where a physician makes a preliminary diagnosis based on symptoms and probabilities, then orders tests, and then refines the diagnosis based on the test results and a new set of probabilities.

If you think about it, it’s also the way you work when you’re on a jury. At the outset, you have a vague impression of the likelihood of guilt or innocence of the defendant. As evidence mounts, you adjust the relative probabilities you assign to each of these verdicts. You may not do a formal calculation, but your informal procedure is nonetheless Bayesian.

Randomness is all around us. “Many or most parts of our lives involve situations where we don’t know what’s going to happen,”; says Professor Starbird. Probability comes to the rescue to describe what we should expect from randomness. It is a powerful tool for dispelling illusions and uncertainty to help us understand the true odds when we roll the dice in the game of life.

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